Odds Of Quad Aces In Texas Holdem
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The odds of hitting quads on the flop are a minuscule 0.2% or 407 to 1. By the river it goes up slightly to 2.1% but the odds are still very much against you. When you do hit four-of-a-kind you’re generally going to be the winner. Your Texas Hold’em poker odds are given below for hitting a draw by the river with a given number of outs after the flop and turn, and examples of draws with specified numbers of poker outs given. Example: if you hold 22 and the flop does not contain a 2, the odds of hitting a 2 on the turn is 22:1 (4%). Re: Odds of getting quad aces with PP Just as a side note, even if the jackpot requires the quads and pocket pair to be the same rank (which seems very likely to be the case), the ’other’ case where a player wins the hand with a pocket pair and a different rank quads are on board is sort of interesting to me.
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*The odds of receiving any of the thirteen possible pocket pairs (twos up to Aces) is: (13/221) = (1/17) ≈ 5.9%. In contrast, you can expect to receive any pocket pair once every 35 minutes on average.
*Odds and probability of AA vs KK happening. The odds of being dealt any specific pocket pair, such as aces, is 220-to-1 but the odds of being dealt a pair of aces and then someone at the same table being dealt pocket kings is slightly less as the two aces have been removed from the 52-card deck.
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As a poker beginner, you might be already envisioning the money made when you look down at your cards and see pocket aces. While it is true that AA will win more often than not, you still need to understand you will not win every time. So how often can you expect to win with aces?
Pocket aces win 85% of the time against one opponent holding the random hand in Texas Holdem. Although the percentage varies greatly depending on the opponent’s hand and the number of opponents. 85% is the odds to win when AA goes all-in preflop. Odds change on later streets.
It might feel unfair when we loose holding the best hand but keep in mind if we are not 100% to win, we will lose sometimes. Odds Of Quad Aces In Texas Holdem GameTable of ContentsChances of winning with pocket aces preflop
Firstly let’s look at odds of winning with AA preflop. For better representation, I will take a sample of 100 examples. So next 100 times you receive an AA, 15 times you will lose and win 85 times.
We should not forget about variance. If we experience negative variance (if we are unlucky), then we may lose 30 times and win 70 times only. On the other hand, if we get a positive side of variance (if we are lucky), we could win 95 out of 100 times!
Odds for winning when all-in preflop change depending on which hand we are up against. See how well does AA against specific hands. For new players to poker, let me elaborate on the table below.
*72o means any combination of 7 and 2, o after means the hand is off-suit (meaning that suits on 7 and 2 don’t match)
*22+ means any pocket pair of 2 and higher (which is all pocket pairs from 22 to and including AA)
*T+ means any card T and higher (T, J, Q, K, A)
*JTs stands for JT suites, which means that suits of J and T match
*broadway hands are the hands that include any combination of hands where the lowest card is T or higher (TQ, TJ, AA, KK, TT, AT)
How odds change against more players
The odds of winning reduce if more players are involved in the hand. Against two opponents holding random hands, AA wins 73.5% of the time. Against three, the odds of winning are now merely 64%. The tool I am using to show you the % is called Equilab. And you can download it for free from Pokerstrategy’s website. Click on Poker Tools in the menu, the software and scroll down to the end where it says Free training software. Make sure you download the one for Hold’em (it’s written only Equilab).Chances of winning with AA on later streets
In poker, there is more than just preflop. We know four streets. Those are preflop, flop, turn, and river. It’s easy to calculate your odds to win preflop. When it comes to postflop, things start to get more complex. There are many possible flops. In fact 22100 possible flops. Now some of those could be grouped, but that would still leave us with 1755 different scenarios of flops. On turn and river, that number only increases.
So I can’t show you the odds of winning with AA against those. But I encourage you to download yourself Equilab I linked to above and play around with different flops, turns, and rivers. As a general rule of thumb, more players, the more cautious you need to be. It will be more likely at least one player has something good.Chances of winning pre-flop with other hands
Pocket aces are the strongest hand in poker. But we shouldn’t ignore others. The second strongest hand in Hold’em are pocket kings followed by pocket queens. Chances to win with pocket kings
From the table, we can notice that equity (% to win) with KK against random hand preflop is a bit different for some cards and pretty much the same for others. The biggest difference comes from broadway hands and 22+. The difference is because 22+ and broadways also include AA and that crushes us (AA is 82% to win against KK).
KK has 78.5% chance to win preflop against a random hand. So if our opponent holds a random hand they will still win roughly 1 out of five times. 21.5% of the time to be exact.
Important note. 888 poker download 64 bit iso. In scenarios above for AA and KK, where I compared them to random holding, I assumed the opponent has a random hand he is willing to go all-in with preflop. In real poker games, opponents will not be going all-in with random hands. Lets now check the case for QQ
Same as for KK our equity with QQ now falls lower, when we are up against broadway hands and pocket pairs.Lastly let’s check how we do against those hands with AK as many players like to overplay AK.
Many beginner players are shocked when they see how poorly AK does. That’swhere seasoned poker players will make a lot of money from beginners. Any experienced player knows newbie often overplays hands that look nice but don’t do that good against stronger holdings. With QQ our equity was a lot higher for all of the scenarios. Even against the worst combination of 72o, AK is supposed to win only 2 out of 3 times. This means you will lose 32 times and win 62 times. And that is if you run just average. And this if there would be no variance involved.
I will go deeper into the strategy in another article as it is a massive topic on its own. For now, know when the opponent goes all-in preflop, he will have a decent hand unless they are aggressive players willing to bluff their stack. While some players play tighter (they don’t play many hands) than others a good rule of thumb is pocket kings and aces are always strong enough to get all the money in the middle preflop. With QQ we should be good against the majority, but the tightest people. When it comes to AK, it depends on the opponent we are up against. Often it comes down to personal playing style. I prefer to play my AK a bit more passively, and I will not be blindly throwing my stack in the middle to gamble for what is around 50% to win against what opponent wants to go with all-in.Conclusion
While pocket aces are a definite favorite against any other hand preflop, it doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed to win. Odds change significantly if more players are involved, but at the end of the day, if we get all the money in preflop, we should be happy. In the worst-case scenario, we will have 77.5% to win. When we have either KK or QQ we should still do good. But with AK we need to start being cautiouspreflop.Related Links
*Ace King vs Pocket Jacks: Winrate and Examples
*Odds of Winning With Pocket Kings: Including the Winrate
*Chances to Win with QQ: Graph Included (6 votes, average: 3.33 out of 5)
Mark | Poker Articles, Poker Rules
Getting dealt pocket Aces
This is an article about one of the best or worst (depending on the point of view) situations in poker, namely the AA vs KK hand including odds and probabilities for AA vs KK.
Every poker player loves to look down on their hole cards and see a pair of aces staring back at them. It really is a beautiful site, albeit a rather rare one that will only happen, on average, once in every 221 hands dealt but when they do find their way to your hand it is a joyous occasion as you hold the best starting hand in Texas Hold’em.
One of the problems with aces, whether using the Betfair Poker code or not, is that they do not come around very often and when they do you often find yourself winning a relatively small pot with them. However, one occasion when you will be an odds on favorite to win a substantial pot is when one of your opponents has been dealt a pair of kings, the classic AA vs KK confrontation!
Odds and probability of AA vs KK happening
The odds of being dealt any specific pocket pair, such as aces, is 220-to-1 but the odds of being dealt a pair of aces and then someone at the same table being dealt pocket kings is slightly less as the two aces have been removed from the 52-card deck. This means that the odds of someone being dealt a pair of kings when you have aces is 205-to-1. However, that only applies when you are heads-up against a single player, against a full table with nine other opponents you will find yourself in an AA vs KK situation once in every 20 times you are dealt aces.
The reason having aces against kings is usually so profitable is that the player with kings rarely worries about his opponent having a higher pair as it will only happen to them around 4.4% of the time they hold kings so will generally be willing to commit their entire stack. The problem is that when they do put their chips into the middle they will be doing so with very little equity, in fact they will be around an 82% underdog in the hand.
Winning with AA vs KK
Betfair poker pundits note how being dominated by a higher pair is disastrous for the lower pair as they almost always have to hit a set (one of their two remaining cards) in order to win. Sometimes the lower pair can hit an unlikely straight or flush to prevail against the higher pair but this is very rare, even more so in the case of AA vs KK as the kings are ranked so closely aces. Indeed, sharing the same suits lessens the chances of a win for the kings, for example a pair of black aces against a pair of black kings will see the former win 82.64% of the time but black aces “only” win red kings 81.26% of the time, which although a minor difference can be quite large over a significant sample size.
Famous AA vs KK confrontations
Although we have already ascertained that AA vs KK confrontations do not happen as often as we would like to believe, when they do occur they are usually high profile as the pots are more significant and if the aces lose a big deal is made due to them being an overwhelming favourite. The biggest hand of this type in recent times was at the 2009 World Series of Poker Main Event final table, which Joe Cada eventually won. In the hand Kevin Schaffel raised from middle position to 1,250,000 holding AhAc, Steve Begleiter called in the cutoff but Eric Buchman, on the button, looked down at KhKc and made it 5,750,000 to play.
With the action back on Schaffel, he moved all-in for 17,200,000 chips in total, forcing Begleiter out of the pot but Buchman quickly called. As Schaffel’s aces were of the same suit as Buchman’s kings he was an 82.64% favourite but that all changed when the flop came down Qs-Jh-Ks, giving Buchman a set! Shaffel still had around a 21% chance to win as he could have hit a ten for a straight or an ace for a higher set but the Kd fell on the turn, giving his opponent quad kings and the hand. The meaningless 9c arrive on the turn and Schaffel was eliminated in eighth place, worth $1,300,231.
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The odds of hitting quads on the flop are a minuscule 0.2% or 407 to 1. By the river it goes up slightly to 2.1% but the odds are still very much against you. When you do hit four-of-a-kind you’re generally going to be the winner. Your Texas Hold’em poker odds are given below for hitting a draw by the river with a given number of outs after the flop and turn, and examples of draws with specified numbers of poker outs given. Example: if you hold 22 and the flop does not contain a 2, the odds of hitting a 2 on the turn is 22:1 (4%). Re: Odds of getting quad aces with PP Just as a side note, even if the jackpot requires the quads and pocket pair to be the same rank (which seems very likely to be the case), the ’other’ case where a player wins the hand with a pocket pair and a different rank quads are on board is sort of interesting to me.
*Share
*The odds of receiving any of the thirteen possible pocket pairs (twos up to Aces) is: (13/221) = (1/17) ≈ 5.9%. In contrast, you can expect to receive any pocket pair once every 35 minutes on average.
*Odds and probability of AA vs KK happening. The odds of being dealt any specific pocket pair, such as aces, is 220-to-1 but the odds of being dealt a pair of aces and then someone at the same table being dealt pocket kings is slightly less as the two aces have been removed from the 52-card deck.
*Tweet
As a poker beginner, you might be already envisioning the money made when you look down at your cards and see pocket aces. While it is true that AA will win more often than not, you still need to understand you will not win every time. So how often can you expect to win with aces?
Pocket aces win 85% of the time against one opponent holding the random hand in Texas Holdem. Although the percentage varies greatly depending on the opponent’s hand and the number of opponents. 85% is the odds to win when AA goes all-in preflop. Odds change on later streets.
It might feel unfair when we loose holding the best hand but keep in mind if we are not 100% to win, we will lose sometimes. Odds Of Quad Aces In Texas Holdem GameTable of ContentsChances of winning with pocket aces preflop
Firstly let’s look at odds of winning with AA preflop. For better representation, I will take a sample of 100 examples. So next 100 times you receive an AA, 15 times you will lose and win 85 times.
We should not forget about variance. If we experience negative variance (if we are unlucky), then we may lose 30 times and win 70 times only. On the other hand, if we get a positive side of variance (if we are lucky), we could win 95 out of 100 times!
Odds for winning when all-in preflop change depending on which hand we are up against. See how well does AA against specific hands. For new players to poker, let me elaborate on the table below.
*72o means any combination of 7 and 2, o after means the hand is off-suit (meaning that suits on 7 and 2 don’t match)
*22+ means any pocket pair of 2 and higher (which is all pocket pairs from 22 to and including AA)
*T+ means any card T and higher (T, J, Q, K, A)
*JTs stands for JT suites, which means that suits of J and T match
*broadway hands are the hands that include any combination of hands where the lowest card is T or higher (TQ, TJ, AA, KK, TT, AT)
How odds change against more players
The odds of winning reduce if more players are involved in the hand. Against two opponents holding random hands, AA wins 73.5% of the time. Against three, the odds of winning are now merely 64%. The tool I am using to show you the % is called Equilab. And you can download it for free from Pokerstrategy’s website. Click on Poker Tools in the menu, the software and scroll down to the end where it says Free training software. Make sure you download the one for Hold’em (it’s written only Equilab).Chances of winning with AA on later streets
In poker, there is more than just preflop. We know four streets. Those are preflop, flop, turn, and river. It’s easy to calculate your odds to win preflop. When it comes to postflop, things start to get more complex. There are many possible flops. In fact 22100 possible flops. Now some of those could be grouped, but that would still leave us with 1755 different scenarios of flops. On turn and river, that number only increases.
So I can’t show you the odds of winning with AA against those. But I encourage you to download yourself Equilab I linked to above and play around with different flops, turns, and rivers. As a general rule of thumb, more players, the more cautious you need to be. It will be more likely at least one player has something good.Chances of winning pre-flop with other hands
Pocket aces are the strongest hand in poker. But we shouldn’t ignore others. The second strongest hand in Hold’em are pocket kings followed by pocket queens. Chances to win with pocket kings
From the table, we can notice that equity (% to win) with KK against random hand preflop is a bit different for some cards and pretty much the same for others. The biggest difference comes from broadway hands and 22+. The difference is because 22+ and broadways also include AA and that crushes us (AA is 82% to win against KK).
KK has 78.5% chance to win preflop against a random hand. So if our opponent holds a random hand they will still win roughly 1 out of five times. 21.5% of the time to be exact.
Important note. 888 poker download 64 bit iso. In scenarios above for AA and KK, where I compared them to random holding, I assumed the opponent has a random hand he is willing to go all-in with preflop. In real poker games, opponents will not be going all-in with random hands. Lets now check the case for QQ
Same as for KK our equity with QQ now falls lower, when we are up against broadway hands and pocket pairs.Lastly let’s check how we do against those hands with AK as many players like to overplay AK.
Many beginner players are shocked when they see how poorly AK does. That’swhere seasoned poker players will make a lot of money from beginners. Any experienced player knows newbie often overplays hands that look nice but don’t do that good against stronger holdings. With QQ our equity was a lot higher for all of the scenarios. Even against the worst combination of 72o, AK is supposed to win only 2 out of 3 times. This means you will lose 32 times and win 62 times. And that is if you run just average. And this if there would be no variance involved.
I will go deeper into the strategy in another article as it is a massive topic on its own. For now, know when the opponent goes all-in preflop, he will have a decent hand unless they are aggressive players willing to bluff their stack. While some players play tighter (they don’t play many hands) than others a good rule of thumb is pocket kings and aces are always strong enough to get all the money in the middle preflop. With QQ we should be good against the majority, but the tightest people. When it comes to AK, it depends on the opponent we are up against. Often it comes down to personal playing style. I prefer to play my AK a bit more passively, and I will not be blindly throwing my stack in the middle to gamble for what is around 50% to win against what opponent wants to go with all-in.Conclusion
While pocket aces are a definite favorite against any other hand preflop, it doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed to win. Odds change significantly if more players are involved, but at the end of the day, if we get all the money in preflop, we should be happy. In the worst-case scenario, we will have 77.5% to win. When we have either KK or QQ we should still do good. But with AK we need to start being cautiouspreflop.Related Links
*Ace King vs Pocket Jacks: Winrate and Examples
*Odds of Winning With Pocket Kings: Including the Winrate
*Chances to Win with QQ: Graph Included (6 votes, average: 3.33 out of 5)
Mark | Poker Articles, Poker Rules
Getting dealt pocket Aces
This is an article about one of the best or worst (depending on the point of view) situations in poker, namely the AA vs KK hand including odds and probabilities for AA vs KK.
Every poker player loves to look down on their hole cards and see a pair of aces staring back at them. It really is a beautiful site, albeit a rather rare one that will only happen, on average, once in every 221 hands dealt but when they do find their way to your hand it is a joyous occasion as you hold the best starting hand in Texas Hold’em.
One of the problems with aces, whether using the Betfair Poker code or not, is that they do not come around very often and when they do you often find yourself winning a relatively small pot with them. However, one occasion when you will be an odds on favorite to win a substantial pot is when one of your opponents has been dealt a pair of kings, the classic AA vs KK confrontation!
Odds and probability of AA vs KK happening
The odds of being dealt any specific pocket pair, such as aces, is 220-to-1 but the odds of being dealt a pair of aces and then someone at the same table being dealt pocket kings is slightly less as the two aces have been removed from the 52-card deck. This means that the odds of someone being dealt a pair of kings when you have aces is 205-to-1. However, that only applies when you are heads-up against a single player, against a full table with nine other opponents you will find yourself in an AA vs KK situation once in every 20 times you are dealt aces.
The reason having aces against kings is usually so profitable is that the player with kings rarely worries about his opponent having a higher pair as it will only happen to them around 4.4% of the time they hold kings so will generally be willing to commit their entire stack. The problem is that when they do put their chips into the middle they will be doing so with very little equity, in fact they will be around an 82% underdog in the hand.
Winning with AA vs KK
Betfair poker pundits note how being dominated by a higher pair is disastrous for the lower pair as they almost always have to hit a set (one of their two remaining cards) in order to win. Sometimes the lower pair can hit an unlikely straight or flush to prevail against the higher pair but this is very rare, even more so in the case of AA vs KK as the kings are ranked so closely aces. Indeed, sharing the same suits lessens the chances of a win for the kings, for example a pair of black aces against a pair of black kings will see the former win 82.64% of the time but black aces “only” win red kings 81.26% of the time, which although a minor difference can be quite large over a significant sample size.
Famous AA vs KK confrontations
Although we have already ascertained that AA vs KK confrontations do not happen as often as we would like to believe, when they do occur they are usually high profile as the pots are more significant and if the aces lose a big deal is made due to them being an overwhelming favourite. The biggest hand of this type in recent times was at the 2009 World Series of Poker Main Event final table, which Joe Cada eventually won. In the hand Kevin Schaffel raised from middle position to 1,250,000 holding AhAc, Steve Begleiter called in the cutoff but Eric Buchman, on the button, looked down at KhKc and made it 5,750,000 to play.
With the action back on Schaffel, he moved all-in for 17,200,000 chips in total, forcing Begleiter out of the pot but Buchman quickly called. As Schaffel’s aces were of the same suit as Buchman’s kings he was an 82.64% favourite but that all changed when the flop came down Qs-Jh-Ks, giving Buchman a set! Shaffel still had around a 21% chance to win as he could have hit a ten for a straight or an ace for a higher set but the Kd fell on the turn, giving his opponent quad kings and the hand. The meaningless 9c arrive on the turn and Schaffel was eliminated in eighth place, worth $1,300,231.
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No comments yet.Leave a commentSpecial promotionsPoker Pro Bankroll SeriesLatest Poker Strategy ArticlesContact PokerBankrollBlogOdds Of Quad Aces In Texas Holdem GolfQuestions? Concerns? Comments? Contact us! We’ll return your email within 12 hours.
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